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This is an archived USAID document retained on this web site as a matter of public record.
Remarks by Anne Peterson,
Assistant Administrator, Global Health
and Karen Stanecki, Chief of Health Studies, Census Bureau
Children on the Brink 2002: A Joint Report on Orphan Estimates and Program Strategies
Thursday, July 11, 2002
ANNE PETERSON: I am Dr. Anne Peterson, the assistant administrator for global health at the U.S. Agency for International Development. I have a very strong panel with me - Karen Stanecki from the Census Bureau, Peter Piot from UNAIDS and Carol Bellamy from UNICEF. We also have three youth representatives from three different countries in the front row that you can talk to.
I'm here today to talk on an important publication, "Children on the Brink." Three agencies - the U.S. Agency for International Development, UNICEF and UNAIDS have come together to produce this report. "Children on the Brink" provides statistics on orphans in Africa, Asia, Latin America. It provides a sobering projected estimate of the children that have lost one or both parents to AIDS in all of the continents. The number is projected to grow to more than 25 million in 2010. Now, I know that there is some confusion about how these numbers are different than previous numbers. So I will turn it over to Karen to explain what they actually mean, how we got them, and where we're going with them.
KAREN STANECKI: Good afternoon. Previously, UNAIDS, UNICEF and USAID have produced estimates of AIDS orphans, and USAID has produced estimates of all-cause orphans. These three groups have used slightly different methods and reported different estimates current - for example, current versus cumulative. But for these new estimates, the three groups have worked out, with the UNAIDS reference group, on estimates and projections to come up with a unified approach to making and reporting estimates of orphans. This UNAIDS reference group is the same group that worked with UNAIDS to produce the estimates of HIV prevalence that were released last week. And these are the same numbers that were used to estimate the number of AIDS orphans and orphans due to all causes.
I've been asked to define for you the different types of orphans that I described in the report. We have a number of maternal orphans. Maternal orphans are children who have lost their mother and perhaps their father. Paternal orphans are children who have lost their father and perhaps their mother. Double orphans are children who have lost both parents. And total orphans are children who have lost one or both parents. In addition, double-AIDS orphans mean both parents are dead, at least one of them - one of the parents have died of AIDS.
We believe that the numbers that have been released today represent the best estimates of the current status in orphan issues and - and that's all I want to say at this point.
ANNE PETERSON: Thank you. So, with that best estimate, that is really the consensus document for all of these agencies. What we see is that the number of orphans is increasing dramatically. In Africa, 30 million children are orphans, one-third of them are due to AIDS. By 2010, 40 million children will be orphans, but half will be due to AIDS. And in addition, 1 in 16, or 6% of all children will be orphaned due to AIDS. In countries with high levels of HIV prevalence, this problem can become even worse. In 2010, in four African countries, one in five children will be orphans.
Even if we could stop the spread of AIDS starting today, the number of orphans would continue to increase for the next decade. We have this example from Uganda, where HIV prevalence began to climb in the early 1990s, the number of orphans continued to grow for ten years, and it's only now beginning to decline. In Asia, the total number of orphans is larger than in Africa, because the population is so much larger. However, the number of children orphaned due to AIDS is currently smaller. However, due to the large population again, even a very small increase in HIV prevalence could cause a massive leap in the new orphaned due to AIDS.
As alarming as these trends are, they still do not include the millions of children whose lives are dramatically affected by AIDS. Countless children are living with and caring for parents who are sick and dying. With fewer healthy adults caring for the increasing number of children, the societal impact is beyond just the impact of those orphans themselves.
The implications of this are unprecedented. Previous "Children on the Brink" reports have broken the silence on the issue on the large and growing of orphans due to AIDS. This reports brings a consensus on the incredible number, how massive the impact is likely to be, and that we must rapidly increase our global response. Our current efforts are significant. U.S. Agency for International Development currently has 75 projects in 22 countries. And we have a report at our booth that lists them country by country, so you can reference your people back to them. And we have successful models for reaching children. However, the efforts of USAID, UNICEF, UNAIDS and our many partners around the world have currently only reached a small fraction of the children affected by AIDS. Now the global community must respond together to this unprecedented problem in an unprecedented way.
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Last Updated on: January 02, 2009 |
