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East Timor Program Final Evaluation [PDF]

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USAID/OTI East Timor Field Report

December 2001


Program Description

OTI's goal is to help secure and encourage a political, social and economic environment conducive to the democratic nation building process during East Timor's transition to independence. Current program priorities include economic recovery and community stabilization, assistance to independent media outlets to provide balanced and widely disseminated information, funding for NGOs and civic organizations, support for the judicial sector, and the reintegration of ex-combatants. OTI/East Timor's FY2002 budget is approximately $9 million.

Country Situation

The Donors' Conference on East Timor was held in Oslo, Norway from December 11 to 13. The meeting focused on East Timor's independence on May 20, the recently launched national development planning process, and the medium term fiscal strategy. East Timor's Minister of Finance outlined the future government's broad macroeconomic policy objectives of achieving fiscal self-sufficiency by 2006, increasing savings and developing non-oil and gas sectors, and investing oil and gas revenues for the benefit of future generations. Poverty alleviation and the diversification of the economy were also mentioned as key elements of the fledgling nation's development plan.

The East Timor Public Administration (ETPA) presented a three-year budget with a cumulative external financing need of $154 million to $184 million. The future oil revenue stream is likely to begin in 2005/2006. Based on the latest oil revenue projections, which are significantly higher than those available at the last donors' meeting in Canberra, the three-year budget framework reflects a sustainable fiscal path over a longer time horizon. The ETPA, supported by the International Monetary Fund, defines the fiscal strategy as sustainable in the sense that expenditures would be fully covered by domestic revenues, interest earnings on oil savings, and a manageable level of concessional borrowing. This assessment depends on the implementation of sound policies needed to generate a stable macroeconomic environment and a high rate of growth of the non-oil economy.

Although the guiding principles structuring the medium term fiscal framework were generally supported, donors and representatives of the ETPA agreed on the need to keep under review the assumptions underpinning revenue and expenditure projections. Prospects for a rapid recovery are hampered by impediments to private investment, including the lack of skilled labor, infrastructure, legislation for property rights and secure land tenure, and a legal and regulatory framework for business.

In mid-December, the Constituent Assembly voted on a change of procedures and longer working hours in order to increase the speed of deliberations of the constitutional articles. The Constituent Assembly now expects to pass East Timor's first Constitution by January 25, extending the original deadline of December 15.

The Special Panel for Serious Crimes delivered verdicts in East Timor's first crimes against humanity trial, known as the "Los Palos case." All ten accused were convicted of committing a range of crimes against humanity in 1999 and the sentences ranged from 4 to 33 years. The Special Panel found that there was a widespread and systematic campaign of violence directed at the civilian population during 1999 at the direction of the Indonesian armed forces, and that contrary to many of the claims of the accused, they were aware that their acts were part of that campaign.

Representatives of East Timor and Phillips Petroleum have reached agreement on a tax and fiscal package that will allow the gas phase of the Bayu-Undan development in the Timor Sea to proceed. As part of the package, Phillips Petroleum and its co-investors will also commit to the employment of East Timorese and to investment in infrastructure in East Timor. The estimated benefit to East Timor for the full development of the Bayu-Undan field is $2.5 to $3 billion over the life of the field.

OTI Highlights

A. Narrative Summary

In the areas of media, civil society, and rule of law, OTI East Timor made nine new grants during the month of December. OTI provided a grant to the Timor Post to continue distribution of newspapers in West Timor and to major community centers, such as churches and health posts in East Timor. The distributions in West Timor are carried out by the Jesuit Refugee Service, which maintains a presence in both East and West Timor. Additionally, OTI East Timor has made another grant to the district reporter desk of Radio UNTAET. The project has included a lengthy process of training, distribution of equipment, and establishing programs based on reporting from the districts, which has proven to be extremely successful in bringing information from the districts to the national news broadcasts.

OTI also made a grant to The Carter Center to carry out community level activities surrounding rule of law. These activities will include community level meetings to share information about the judicial system, legal issues, and traditional conflict resolution mechanisms. OTI supported a consortium of local NGOs in Aileu District to establish the Aileu Human Rights Center, which will provide training and resources to local organizations carrying out human rights related activities.

The BELE community stabilization initiative approved the last cycle of 18 grants to be funded under this project. Pending applications in Baucau District have been handed over for consideration under the portion of the OTI-funded BELE project implemented by IOM. IOM has completed the first phase (four months) of its BELE project. Geographical regions to be covered under Phase II are under review and will be finalized in early January, taking into account evolving needs and returning refugee settlement patterns.

OTI's Economic Recovery Program approved two grants, the first to support the Ministry of Agriculture in improving the quality of local rice seed, which in turn will help farmers obtain better prices for their produce, and the second to support the participation of East Timorese government staff in cross-border discussions with Indonesia on the demarcation of the land border. The program team also finalized the recruitment of two expert private sector development advisors who will work with the Planning Commission in conducting analysis and incorporating the necessary elements of an enabling environment for private sector development. The effort is part of the overall national development planning process, to be completed at independence.

B. Grants Activity Summary

Sector Obligated funds (USD) Number of grants approved
  FY00/FY01 FY02 December Only Total FY00-FY02 FY00/FY01 FY02 December Only Total FY00-FY02
Civil Society 1,645,462 146,111 12,400 1,791,573 86 9 1 95
Media 2,506,050 126,500 100,900 2,632,550 59 9 4 68
Governance 693,824 158,330 123,330 852,154 15 5 4 20
Economic Recovery & Stabilization 2,320,143 405,573 167,050 2,725,716 137 33 20 170
Public Works (TEP) 4,032,139 0 0 4,032,139 61 0 0 61
Reintegration of Ex-Combatants 1,108,123 0 0 1,108,123 2 0 0 2
Total 12,305,741 836,514 403,680 13,142,255 360 56 29 416

C. Indicators of Success

The Timor Loros'ae Journalist Association undertook efforts to lobby East Timor's Constituent Assembly on freedom of speech and freedom of the press. These efforts have included submissions to the Constituent Assembly, radio interviews, articles in the newspapers, and discussions with individual Assembly members. OTI grantee Internews has provided important support for these efforts.

The Judicial System Monitoring Programme (JSMP) released a comprehensive report on the justice system in East Timor. JSMP, made up of both international and East Timorese staff, has been monitoring the judicial system in East Timor, including both the work of the Serious Crimes Investigation Unit and the Ministry of Justice. The report will provide a comprehensive overview of the judicial system, including recommendations for improvements to the system, and will serve as an important guide for human rights advocates, donors, Ministry officials, and UN agencies supporting the establishment of East Timor's justice system.

D. Program Appraisal

By providing equipment and funds for local groups to carry out activities and by supporting training initiatives, OTI has played a significant role in the development of media and civil society in East Timor. East Timor now has a vibrant media and NGO community. Many groups have played an advocacy role in the drafting of East Timor's Constitution. However, once the Constitution is drafted and East Timor moves toward presidential elections and independence in May 2002, both the East Timorese media and NGOs may face increasing challenges. It is important that USAID remain strongly engaged with both the media and local NGOs.

NEXT STEPS/IMMEDIATE PRIORITIES

OTI will be looking again at practical assistance to the justice sector, including legal aid. In January 2002, OTI will support an assessment of the media sector in East Timor by two international media professionals. It is anticipated that the assessment will provide OTI and other donors with a coherent assessment of the current state of media in East Timor as well as recommendations for the future. As UNTAET begins to wind down, OTI's media program will aim to observe and participate in the ongoing discussions about the future of Radio UNTAET and ultimately a national public broadcaster in East Timor.

For the BELE team, most of January will be spent working on the project evaluation, which will be conducted by an external consultant, and continued work on grant closure. The Economic Recovery team will focus on finalizing grant development with a number of grantees, and ensuring that the private sector technical advisors are well-supported and oriented as they begin their work with the Planning Commission.

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